Monthly chess opening intelligence

Track where opening theory and practical play diverge.

OpenCast analyzes monthly Lichess opening data, forecasts win-rate movement, and highlights where human results outperform or lag behind engine expectation.

216 openings tracked
40 months of data
62 high-confidence forecasts
Last updated: 2026-05

Top outperformer

E98

King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System

Human win rate: 54.6%

+8.52 pp vs engine

Largest engine gap

A44

Benoni Defense: Old Benoni

Engine: 57.7% → Human: 46.7%

-11.03 pp vs engine

Steepest rising trend

A28

English Opening: Four Knights System, Nimzowitsch Variation

OLS trend: +0.1159 pp/month

↑ Forecast rising

Win Rate Forecasts

Win Rate Trends

The strongest signals are best read alongside uncertainty bands to separate stable trends from short-term noise.

Engine Delta

Engine vs Human Gap

These outliers flag openings where practical play diverges most from theoretical evaluation.

ECO Family Win Rates

ECO Family Patterns

Category-level heatmap patterns continue to show non-uniform performance over time, with month-to-month variation indicating shifting practical preferences across ECO families.