Monthly chess opening intelligence
Track where opening theory and practical play diverge.
OpenCast analyzes monthly Lichess opening data, forecasts win-rate movement, and highlights where human results outperform or lag behind engine expectation.
Largest absolute engine delta
A44
Benoni Defense: Old Benoni
Engine: 57.7% → Human: 46.7%
-11.02 pp vs engine
Fastest rising by 3-month MA
A95
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation
Latest 3M moving-average acceleration
+3.00 pp (last 3M)
Win Rate Forecasts
Win Rate Trends
The strongest signals are best read alongside uncertainty bands to separate stable trends from short-term noise.
Engine Delta
Engine vs Human Gap
These outliers flag openings where practical play diverges most from theoretical evaluation.
ECO Family Win Rates
ECO Family Patterns
Category-level heatmap patterns continue to show non-uniform performance over time, with month-to-month variation indicating shifting practical preferences across ECO families. Use 50% as parity baseline: persistent deviations indicate family-level practical tilt.