Monthly chess opening intelligence
Track where opening theory and practical play diverge.
OpenCast analyzes monthly Lichess opening data, forecasts win-rate movement, and highlights where human results outperform or lag behind engine expectation.
Top outperformer
E98
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System
Human win rate: 54.6%
+8.52 pp vs engine
Steepest rising trend
A28
English Opening: Four Knights System, Nimzowitsch Variation
OLS trend: +0.1159 pp/month
↑ Forecast rising
Win Rate Forecasts
Win Rate Trends
The strongest signals are best read alongside uncertainty bands to separate stable trends from short-term noise.
Engine Delta
Engine vs Human Gap
These outliers flag openings where practical play diverges most from theoretical evaluation.
ECO Family Win Rates
ECO Family Patterns
Category-level heatmap patterns continue to show non-uniform performance over time, with month-to-month variation indicating shifting practical preferences across ECO families.